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Missile Defense

Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's war and defense efforts. Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars" defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful? Can such an application of science be successful? Is a militarized space inevitable, necessary or impossible?

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rshow55 - 03:48pm Sep 3, 2003 EST (# 13483 of 13484)
Can we do a better job of finding truth? YES. Click "rshow55" for some things Lchic and I have done and worked for on this thread.

Kline:

We need to keep asking ourselves two questions: (i) What are the credible data from ALL sources? (ii) How can we formulate a model or solution that is consistent with all the credible data?

I feel these two key questions (i) and (2) bear repeating when right answers matter.

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I've tried pretty hard to respond in detail -and don't feel quite ready to - but I'll post references that I'm looking at - that represented efforts to anticipate or deal with Cooper's question in 13411 .

# 8496 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/10023

# 7659 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/9185

#13418 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15109

# 13440 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15131

# 13445 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15136

# 13461 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15152

# 13463 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15154

Especially this:

13453 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15144 . . I was asked by Eisenhower to solve problems - and to find ways to teach them effectively . Some involved simulation - finding ways so that people can learn to be more sure they're right before going ahead - and more able to deal with events - that cannot be completely predicted - but that will converge into patterns - where people have to care about results.

rshow55 - 03:53pm Sep 3, 2003 EST (# 13484 of 13484)
Can we do a better job of finding truth? YES. Click "rshow55" for some things Lchic and I have done and worked for on this thread.

I worry a lot about canonical forms - patterns that are general and important "every way you look at them."

At the level of human function - three imporant canonical forms are - Berle's laws of power, Maslow's heirarchy of needs, and the golden rule .

I worked closely with Steve Kline worrying about stability in a new world we're moving into - where new patterns are emerging - and old patterns, long recognized, are becoming more important than before.

. The growth of Human Powers Over the Past 100,000 Years http://www.mrshowalter.net/Kline_ExtFactors.htm is worth a careful look. We're like other animals in some ways - but very different in others - and we don't fully understand things that are happening to us - that we need to.

I also worry about problems in game theory and negotiation theory that I was assigned to solve. Where I don't know so very much. But I do know that switching patterns matter (and they better have alternating signs). And that it is important to have steps small enough, and careful enough. Otherwise things that could and should converge can explode instead. I'd like to avoid that.

Gisterme , I'm under the impression that you're an important person - and I apologize if I'm moving too slowly - and not being concise enough. I'm trying to do a good job. But as Cooper says, I'm not so smart. Anyway, I care very much about the interests of the United States - and try to care about them, according to my lights, in all the ways I believe matter.

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fredmoore # 13466 http://forums.nytimes.com/webin/WebX?8@13.ddFTb83rDlH.7001141@.f28e622/15157 raised some great points, and I haven't gotten to them - but I'm trying to. I'm trying to say some things about normal human sociotechnical behavior that make it easier to think about abnormal, perverse, evil patterns that sometimes happen. Though, more often - people work things out pretty decently.

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