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Missile Defense

Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's war and defense efforts. Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars" defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful? Can such an application of science be successful? Is a militarized space inevitable, necessary or impossible?

Read Debates, a new Web-only feature culled from Readers' Opinions, published every Thursday.

rshow55 - 04:22pm Apr 22, 2002 EST (#1669 of 1675)

rshowalter - 05:41pm Aug 23, 2001 EST (#8067) reads in part:

" (Dawn and I) were especially interested in dialog with almarst after we read "Muddle in Moscow" http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=533129 ..... ... ... When we read that story, we imagined that we really were dealing with a powerful man who had taken time, with a staff, to do some listening. Or perhaps we were in a "dry run" that that powerful person might be interested in. And for the next week, Dawn and I worked hard to tell almarst things we thought President Putin might be able to use. We got a lot of perceptive dialog back from almarst while we were doing it.

MD1127 rshowalter 3/17/01 5:06pm ... MD1128 rshowalter 3/17/01 5:31pm
MD1129 rshowalter 3/17/01 5:38pm ... MD1130 rshowalter 3/17/01 5:38pm

rshowalter - 05:42pm Aug 23, 2001 EST (#8068)

MD1131 rshowalter 3/17/01 6:02pm ... MD1132 rshowalter 3/17/01 6:10pm
Kline's Index of complexity -- V + P + L < C < V times P times L ... a key reason why truth is critical for good function in complex systems.

MD1133 rshowalter 3/17/01 6:13pm ... MD1134 rshowalter 3/17/01 6:17pm
MD1135 rshowalter 3/17/01 6:19pm ... MD1136 rshowalter 3/17/01 6:24pm
MD1138 ... MD1139 lunarchick 3/17/01 7:47pm
MD1140 lunarchick 3/17/01 7:52pm

The need for 3 views -- the need to account for positions that have "some of the truth, but not all of it."
MD1143 rshowalter 3/17/01 8:03pm ... MD1144 rshowalter 3/17/01 8:04pm
MD1145 rshowalter 3/17/01 8:22pm

MD1150 rshowalter 3/17/01 9:57pm

The dialog went on, and we got onto some information, I felt it was crucial for senior Russians to know, about economic efficiency:
MD1394 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:30pm ... MD1395 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:36pm
MD1396 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:38pm ... MD1397 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:41pm
MD1398 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:43pm ... MD1399 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:51pm
MD1400 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:53pm .
and, for emphasis, ... MD 1401 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:56pm

It is important for Russians to talk more informatively and reliably among themselves, and with others.
MD1402 rshowalter 3/23/01 5:58pm ... MD1403 rshowalter 3/23/01 6:22pm
MD1404 rshowalter 3/23/01 6:33pm

MD1405-8 rshowalter 3/23/01 6:37pm

A key point that should be common ground, for all the disappointment and bitterness: MD1409 rshowalter 3/23/01 7:10pm

And I suggested an exercise in MD1410-1415 rshowalter 3/23/01 7:30pm

. . . . .

Russia's status, and Putin's status have gone up a good deal since "Muddle in Moscow" http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=533129 . Sometimes I've imagined that some of the things that briefing suggested were actually being incorporated.

If that turned out to be true, that could be helpful in some ways . . . MD1229 rshow55 4/10/02 9:59am

almarst-2001 - 04:32pm Apr 22, 2002 EST (#1670 of 1675)

On Global Village.

The main quastions to ask are:

1. Are we engaged in a COMPETITION or COOPERATION or BOTH.

2. In what APSCTS do we compete, cooperate or both.

3. What are effects of the differences in Social, Economical and Cultural aspects among the Nations.

In a Village, mostly its COOPERATION. Very little COMPETITION if at all. The Village usually share the Culture and similar socio-economical structures.

Unless we are talking about a feudalistic village.

rshow55 - 04:37pm Apr 22, 2002 EST (#1671 of 1675)

Key questions about specific missile defense systems can be discussed without using any classified information at all.

Here are the key questions, for any specific system:

Can it see the target?

Can it hit the target?

Can it hurt the target?

The most specific information about these questions will be classified, and rightly so.

But the most fundamental information cannot be classified - because it is deeply embedded in the open literature, and based on simple physics an engineering.

What can be done in the open literature? Would it take miracles for the system, in terms of details that are open, to see , hit , and hurt the target?

How many miracles, in terms of countermeasures that have to be expected?

The answer is many miracles.

Big miracles.

rshow55 - 04:39pm Apr 22, 2002 EST (#1672 of 1675)

almarst-2001 4/22/02 4:32pm , you're right. And that means that people have to look, in detail, about how big the barriers to communication have become -- and make them smaller.

If we did, we'd be more prosperous, and safer.

There would be less hate, and more willingness of people to take care of each other. And the problems that motivate missile defense could be adressed, in ways that would actually work.

rshow55 - 04:43pm Apr 22, 2002 EST (#1673 of 1675)

Socio-technical systems always involve elements of cooperation and competition.

But for efficiency, if you count cases and time spent, there is MUCH more cooperation than conflict. And conflicts are limited.

It takes clear information - that people can and do understand. And "trust" is easiest when it can be checked.

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