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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 05:06pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8962 of 8975)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Don't forget that it is possible to miscalculate , get surprised, and lose.

There's a common mathematical relation, called the factorial relation, set out with a number and an explanation point.

1! = 1

2! = 2 x 1 = 2

3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6

4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24

5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120

. . . .

10! = 3,628,800

. . . .

15! = 1,307,674,368 x 100,000,000,000

and explosive growth thereafter.

When there are a lot of possibilities, and a lot of things can happen in several orders, the number of things that could happen grows fast.

In complex circumstances, you can't defend against them all.

You can't always know what's coming.

Be careful.

rshowalter - 05:09pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8963 of 8975)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

For reasons like that, by the way, there are jobs that are impossible , even for fast computers.

Missile Defense, as now designed, has a number of such showstoppers, some not encountered yet.

Some of them have already made progress on crucial jobs maddeningly slow for a decade.

Have your contractors missed this simple, unchangeable fact about the world?

almarst-2001 - 05:14pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8964 of 8975)

Gisterme,

I am impressed by your buttle-plan;)

I wish you also know what those forces will do? Occupy the Iraq? The Afganistan? The Pakistan? The Iran? The Sudan? The Libia? The Siria? And what next? Install the "democracy" and teach the tolerance and admiration toward the shiny West?

In my oppinion, it would be good enough if US would stop at least create the next generation of those monsters in places like Kosovo and Chechnia.

It also would be nice if the US would seriously denounce all types of terrorism (by my definition) and start acting accordingly.

As for this tragic event, let's just hope the West does not turn this into catastrophy. The best it can do is to improve the internal security and start the process of reducing the number of its enemies. Starting from some honest assessement of its own behavier. It will not help to fight the terrorism while practicing it at the same time.

almarst-2001 - 05:22pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8965 of 8975)

Clinton-Approved Iranian Arms Transfers Help Turn Bosnia into Militant Islamic Base - http://members.tripod.com/Balkania/resources/geostrategy/rpc_iran_arms_bosnia.html

U.S. Senate Republican Policy Committee - Larry E. Craig, Chairman - Jade West, Staff Director - 'There is no question that the policy of getting arms into Bosnia was of great assistance in allowing the Iranians to dig in and create good relations with the Bosnian government,' a senior CIA officer told Congress in a classified deposition. 'And it is a thing we will live to regret because when they blow up some Americans, as they no doubt will before this . . . thing is over, it will be in part because the Iranians were able to have the time and contacts to establish themselves well in Bosnia.'" ["Iran Gave Bosnia Leader $500,000, CIA Alleges: Classified Report Says Izetbegovic Has Been 'Co-Opted,' Contradicting U.S. Public Assertion of Rift," Los Angeles Times, 12/31/96. Ellipses in original. Alija Izetbegovic is the Muslim president of Bosnia.]

"'If you read President Izetbegovic's writings, as I have, there is no doubt that he is an Islamic fundamentalist,' said a senior Western diplomat with long experience in the region. 'He is a very nice fundamentalist, but he is still a fundamentalist. This has not changed. His goal is to establish a Muslim state in Bosnia, and the Serbs and Croats understand this better than the rest of us.'" ["Bosnian Leader Hails Islam at Election Rallies," New York Times, 9/2/96]

almarst-2001 - 05:32pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8966 of 8975)

Another oppinion: yok_finney "U.S. Foreign Policy" 9/13/01 3:54pm

almarst-2001 - 05:36pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8967 of 8975)

Today I have seen on the Russian news (NTV) the pictures of attacked muslim places in US. Some burned, some fired upon.

Any guess how far are we from anti-muslim pogroms in this country?

almarst-2001 - 05:41pm Sep 13, 2001 EST (#8968 of 8975)

Taliban Plead for Mercy to the Miserable in a Land of Nothing - http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/13/international/13AFGH.html

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