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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 09:30am Sep 3, 2001 EST (#8381 of 8382)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

"Last month, a senior State Department official, John R. Bolton, traveled to Moscow and said in a radio interview that Washington wanted Russian agreement to amend the ABM treaty by the time Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin meet in November in Crawford, Tex. Without such an agreement, Mr. Bolton said, the United States reserved the right to withdraw under terms of the treaty.

"But Mr. Bolton asserted the next day that Washington was not laying down any deadlines. Two days later, Mr. Bush stepped in and said the United States "will withdraw from the ABM treaty on our own timetable at a time convenient to America," but he added that he had no "specific timetable in mind."

(more)

"Speaking to the Finnish interviewer, Mr. Putin expressed concern that the United States under Mr. Bush might be taking the position that "America is so strong that it does not need any negotiations and any agreements." He said this represents the "most extreme" and "toughest" approach to international relations.

"Despite those concerns, Mr. Putin said Russia would not overreact if the United States did decide to withdraw from the ABM treaty. Moscow would continue to work in its foreign policy to rebuild its economy while maintaining "good-natured" relations with its neighbors and main partners. He added that "we, for sure, consider the United States one of them."

"If the United States decides to abandon the treaty approach, Mr. Putin said, "Well, what is to be done? If this is the way, we can only throw up our hands. But even in this event, we will not whip up any hysteria."

"In the case of NATO's planned expansion, to include Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, the Russians did lobby vigorously against the increase, only to look powerless when they lost the argument. In the interview on Saturday, Mr. Putin coined the new watchword of the Russian leadership — "calm."

"Over the last several days, both Mr. Putin and his minister of defense, Sergei B. Ivanov, have repeated this mantra in public statements, refraining from warning that Russia could react to a missile shield by putting multiple warheads on a new generation of its missiles.

"With the new tone, Mr. Putin appeared to be speaking to a European audience, framing Russia's position as reasonable, consistent and stable, while suggesting that the Bush administration was teetering on recklessness.

""You said that Europe is somewhat concerned about the relations between Russia and the United States," Mr. Putin told the Finnish journalist Saturday. "I would like to calm you down. Russia, at least, is not doing anything that would complicate the international situation."

""We don't violate any of the obligations that we undertook," Mr. Putin said. "We are told that something got obsolete like 1972 ABM treaty. It's not what we say, it's what we are told. We disagree that this treaty is obsolete; nevertheless, expressing good will, we are ready for negotiations."

rshowalter - 09:31am Sep 3, 2001 EST (#8382 of 8382)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

If other world leaders took positions this measured and this clear, the stage would be set for checking some facts that would lead to much better alternatives than those that seem looming ahead.

The idea that the world would be safe and stable, for a while, with some old treaty committments in disarray, is responsible, but the risks involved seem clear as well.

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