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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

almarst-2001 - 06:45pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6203 of 6207)

Don't rush. Its likely I will be out till Monday.

But, as US is moving to deploy more and loger-rage convential wearpons openly declearing its desire to extend its offensive capabilities, using its of-shores bases, submarines, B2 stealth bombers, aircraft cariers and NATO instalations, and demonstrated willingness to use them in a way shown over the Serbia, I can't think of any other then BM credible response by a credible and responsible nation.

gisterme - 06:52pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6204 of 6207)

Give yourself some time to sober up almarst. You're not making any sense. :-)

rshowalter - 07:12pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6205 of 6207)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

He's pretty angry, and has some reason to be -- but working pretty hard for stability in some ways, too.

And at a practical level, there are a lot of ways to deter.

rshowalter - 07:18pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6206 of 6207)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

ON DETERRANCE -- I think this is worth posting, while I work on nuts and bolts. Pretty moderate threats are effective on occasion -- nothing like nukes are needed, or desireable, for anybody involved.

A Memo From Osama by THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN http://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/26/opinion/26FRIE.html?searchpv=day01

"Memo From: Osama bin Laden

"To: all field operatives

"My men: This is a great day! Did you see what we accomplished last week? We drove the U.S. armed forces out of three Arab countries by just threatening to hit them. I had some of our boys discuss an attack against the U.S. over cell phones, the C.I.A. picked it up, and look what happened: The F.B.I. team in Yemen, which was investigating our destruction of the U.S.S. Cole in Aden harbor, just packed up and left — even though the State Department was begging them to stay. See ya. Then, after we made a few more phone calls, hundreds of U.S. marines — marines! — who were conducting a joint exercise with the Jordanian Army cut short their operation, got back on their amphibious vessels and fled Jordan on Saturday. See ya. Then all the U.S. warships in Bahrain, which is the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, were so scared of being hit by us they evacuated Bahrain's harbor and sailed out into the Persian Gulf. Boys, there is a military term for all this; it's called a "retreat." Allahu Akbar! God is Great!

"This is a superpower? The Americans turned tail as soon as they picked up a few threats from us. The U.S. press barely reported it; the White House press didn't even ask the president about it. But trust me, everyone out here noticed it. It told them many things: The Americans are afraid of sustaining even one casualty to their soldiers, they don't trust their own intelligence or weak Arab allies to protect them, and they have no military answer for our threat.

"I love America. The Bush people want to spend $100 billion on a missile defense shield to deal with a threat that doesn't yet exist, and they run away from the threat that already exists. They think we rogues are going to attack them with an intercontinental ballistic missile with a return address on it. Are they kidding? Am I wearing a sign that says STUPID on it? We'll hit them the way the Iranians blew up the U.S. base at Khobar, in Saudi Arabia. We'll use layers of local operatives, who can't be traced to any country. Look at the indictment the U.S. courts just passed down for the Khobar bombing. They named 14 people, and they hinted that Iranian agents had coordinated them all, but they had no proof, so they could never pin it on Iran, so they could never retaliate against Iran.

"The people who had the proof were the Saudis, but they refused to turn it over to the F.B.I. Why? Because the Saudis never trusted the Americans to retaliate properly. They figured the U.S. would launch a few cruise missiles at Iran and then run — leaving the Saudis to face Iran alone. Which reminds me, the Russians have hinted that if the U.S. builds a missile defense system against Russia's wishes, the Russians will just sell more missiles to Iraq, Iran or China to overwhelm the system. The fools at the Bush Pentagon say the Russians would never do that because the missiles would also threaten them. Oh yeah? The Russians don't believe in missile shields. They believe in classic deterrence. When the Chechens blew up a few apartment blocks in Moscow with human missiles, the Russians blew up Chechnya. Remember when four Russian diplomats were kidnapped in Beirut in 1985? The Russians retaliated by kidnapping a member of the kidnappers' group, chopped off one of his body parts and sent it back in the mail. Presto! The Russians were released. This isn't Norway out here.

"That's why we'd never mess with the Russians. But the great thing is that Donald Rumsfeld is so obsessed with getting his missile-shield toy, he's been telling everyone that deterrence doesn't work anymore a

rshowalter - 07:19pm Jun 27, 2001 EST (#6207 of 6207)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

"doesn't work anymore against people like us. So they need a missile shield instead. And Bush just repeats it. I love it, because we are not going to attack America's strength at home, we are going to attack soft U.S. targets abroad through shadows. So I hope the Americans invest all their defense budget in a Star Wars shield that will have no effect on us, but will divert them from the real means and the real deterrence that could hurt us.

"Yo, Rummy, who needs missiles? We just drove the F.B.I., the Marines and the U.S. Navy out of the Middle East with a few threats whispered over Nokia cell phones! So who's the dummy, Rummy?

"God is Great. America is stupid. Revolution until victory.