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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

gisterme - 04:04pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5125 of 5145)

rshowalter wrote ( rshowalter 6/14/01 3:32pm ): "...people would be able to sort out the nuclear terror, prohibit nuclear weapons -- at least to the point where they were no more risk than the occasional natural disaster is today -- ..."

Come on, Robert. I thought you had some statistical background. As much as I personally abhor nuclear weapons your implication that they are more of a risk than the "occasional natural disaster" is silly. There have been hundreds of natural disaters since nukes have existed but no catastrophic accidents involving nukes. Yet. As much as most of us would like to see a world where nuclear weapons are unnecessary and non-existant, because there is SOME risk of an accident, it's quite unfair to claim that the risk is anything like the risk of natural disaters. The whole idea of the BMD is to reduce that risk even further...and even move toward eliminating the risk by eliminating strategic nukes.

rshowalter - 04:06pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5126 of 5145)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

We have a difference of opinion about risks.

Here's common ground.

The world hasn't ended yet.

rshowalter - 04:11pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5127 of 5145)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

MD4996 gisterme 6/13/01 1:58pm ... MD4997 rshowalter 6/13/01 2:03pm
MD4998 rshowalter 6/13/01 2:05pm ... MD4999 rshowalter 6/13/01 2:08pm

gisterme - 04:15pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5128 of 5145)

rshowalter wrote: "Just not quite as many" . . . . it was a factor of ten error - or thereabouts -- I haven't gone back and checked -- but isn't that right?..."

I haven't checked either, Robert, but even if that's right, are you saying it would be okay if 2000 were murdered but not okay if 20,000?

Obviously if satellite photos indicated a much larger incursion into Kosovo than actually happened (due to Serb deception) and ground intelligence showed that people were being slaughtered by Serb police and troops, then one would expect estimates of the number of slaughtered to be skewed upwards as well. One thing that was "checkable" was the number of refugees and the number of homes destroyed. There was little mistake about those.

rshowalter - 04:23pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5129 of 5145)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

You should talk to almarst (or, if they care, as I expect they do, some Russians) to sort the situation out as a whole.

I don't think of the Serbs as angels -- in fact, fifteen years ago, I met a newslady who had reported in those parts, and she said she'd gotten raped four times by Serbs. As I recall, she didn't like them.

All the same, I could go back in this thread and find a lot of text, and a lot of references from almarst -- for whom this is a big, passionate issue.

If fact, he says that if it hadn't been for what he'd call "the Yugoslav deceptions" he'd think Russia would be MUCH more amenable to missile defense proposals.

So this is a big issue from that point of view.

And yes, I know everybody makes mistakes.

gisterme - 04:29pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5130 of 5145)

rshowalter wrote: "...To dismiss each other by calling each other "liars" is childish -- because everybody's guilty of the charge..."

Then stop lying, Robert. It IS childish. Most of us grow out of that by the time we reach middle age.

rshowalter - 04:34pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5131 of 5145)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

From you, especially, with all the deceptive stances YOU've taken on this thread -- that's not a reasonable response.

I'm very open to being checked.

My sense of nuclear risks, which could be wrong, but which has motivated considerable effort on my part, is set out in rshowalter "Science News Poetry" 3/1/01 2:07pm

Here's one reason why I think things are even more dangerous than they used to be. rshowalter "Science News Poetry" 3/1/01 11:58am

rshowalter - 04:38pm Jun 14, 2001 EST (#5132 of 5145)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Thunderstorm here. Shutting down for half an hour or so.

(13 following messages)

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