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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 07:37am May 17, 2001 EST (#4035 of 4038)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Or

MUTUALLY ASSURED DISASTER

an accident waiting to happen.

The risk of the world ending, with current technical arrangements, is real.

There are things we should fix.

rshowalter - 10:32am May 17, 2001 EST (#4036 of 4038)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Here are pieces from a fine article worth a full reading:

Pentagon Review Puts Emphasis on Long-Range Arms in Pacific by MICHAEL R. GORDON http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/17/world/17MILI.html?pagewanted=all

WASHINGTON, May 16 - "A confidential Pentagon strategy review has cast the Pacific as the most important region for military planners and calls for the development of new long-range arms to counter China's military power.

" The review concludes that American bases in the Pacific are likely to become increasingly vulnerable as China and other potential adversaries develop more accurate missiles.

" So it urges that the American military become less dependent on military bases and put more emphasis on fighting from a distance.

" The review is part of a broad effort by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld to transform the military after the cold war, a shift that would redirect the focus of American military planning from Europe to Asia.

" It is directed by Andrew W. Marshall, a 79-year-old civilian analyst at the Pentagon and a close adviser to Mr. Rumsfeld, who has long pressed for a radical overhaul of America's armed forces.

" But in the Pacific, the review has drawn a skeptical response from Adm. Dennis C. Blair, the head of the United States Pacific Command and the top American military man in the region.

. . . . .

" If you want to look at serious forces designed to keep the U.S. out of part of the world, look at what the Russians did in the 70's - dozens of submarines, hundreds of long-range bombers, dozens of satellites, lots of practice," Admiral Blair added. "That was a serious system which we were going to have a hard time fighting our way through. Nobody in Asia is even close to that."

"The stark differences between the Pentagon's most futuristic analyst and the military's top officer in the Pacific is part of a broad-range debate over the future of the military that is being carried out behind closed doors. Supporters of Mr. Marshall, who has urged a "revolution in military affairs," often cast the military as hide-bound. But many in the military see Mr. Marshall as too divorced from the day-to-day realities of operating forces in the world, and too much enamored of high technology.

. . . . . . .

" In addition to preparing for war, (Blair) and other officers in the region stress, the American armed forces can help defuse tensions by interacting with other militaries in the region, he says. He has also argued that the political outcome in China is not determined.

" The ultimate business of the U.S. military is to make it a place where Americans can trade, travel and interact in peaceful ways," he said, referring to the Pacific. "That is, build on an alliance structure."

rshowalter - 10:32am May 17, 2001 EST (#4037 of 4038)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

I've often thought that the world would be a better place if the following admonition of George Johnson's was on the masthead of most academic journals.

" Scientists must constantly remind themselves that the map is not the territory, that the models might not be capturing the essence of the problem, and that the assumptions built into a simulation might be wrong. "

It seems to me that everybody else resposible for consequential action, directly or indirectly, should to.

rshowalter - 10:33am May 17, 2001 EST (#4038 of 4038)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

almarst, I'm still thinking of your excellent last postings.

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