![[F]](../_images/site.gif) New York Times on the Web Forums  Science
Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans
for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be
limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI
all over again?
    (3895 previous messages)
rshowalter
- 06:53am May 15, 2001 EST (#3896
of 3901) 
Robert Showalter
showalte@macc.wisc.edu
lucky085a
5/15/01 6:45am
leungki
5/15/01 4:06am
One thing the Bush administration seems to be doing. It is giving
the whole world a sense of the fallibility and the
narrowness of sympathy of the United States.
Whatever else one may say, there are elements of good in that -
unthinking deference to the US has caused plenty of problems -- and
the world may be getting more sensible about that issue.
Let's hope that neither the Bush administration, nor anyone else,
makes mistakes that kill us all. Or mistakes that waste too many
chances.
Let's hope that the Bush administration can avoid predatory
behavior, as well.
lunarchick
- 06:58am May 15, 2001 EST (#3897
of 3901)
lunarchick@www.com
would this, as told to me, be true
Titanium: Russia had high grade, pure titanium. It's said it
didn't make it through from the cold war to the Nineties ...
appropriated by a former Russian Leader and his cronies. If so,
putting oneself first, is an advanced Russian art.
lucky085a
- 07:03am May 15, 2001 EST (#3898
of 3901)
Baby Bush stole the presidency fair and square.
"Let's hope that neither the Bush administration, nor anyone
else, makes mistakes that kill us all"
With this joker in charge, the liklihood is great that mistakes
will be made.
rshowalter
- 07:15am May 15, 2001 EST (#3899
of 3901)
Robert Showalter
showalte@macc.wisc.edu
Thought experiment.
Suppose that, within the United Nations (which is a human group
full of informal and ad hoc organizations) there was an "
organization of un-american activities" including a
"committee of the whole, minus one" --every nation but the
United States.
Would there be things to talk about?
If such an "ad hoc" organization knit together,
and took intelligent action, how effective could it be?
Is the world really helpless before U.S. power? Isn't it
unhealthy that countries seem to think so?
Suppose that the US had ALL the military power that it now seems
to be hoping for (at the level of explicit planning.) Suppose nobody
trusts the good will of the US at all, about anything.
These are just assumptions -- and sometimes, a little thinking
about far fetched assumptions can clarify things -- give a sense of
risks, hopes, possibilities, and the brute complexity of what is
being considered.
********
NOW, on these assumptions, and assuming intelligent and
disciplined action by all concerned, in their own interest:
How much "unilateral power" would the US actually
have, under these assumed circumstances?
How safe and independent would she be?
How safe would the world, and nation states in the
world, be?
My answers, just thinking about the questions a little, are,
respectively: "not much" .... "not very, unless she thought of
the interests of others" ... and "pretty safe."
rshowalter
- 07:21am May 15, 2001 EST (#3900
of 3901)
Robert Showalter
showalte@macc.wisc.edu
We ought to be able to do better than these assumptions -- which
involve an enormous amount of waste by the United States, and a good
deal of ugliness otherwise.
Even so, it is worth considering that, even with misbehavior or
narrowness or blindness on the part of the United States, the
threats from the United States to the rest of the world -- even
thinking of the US as the dark nation almarst thinks of, can
be controlled.
There is also, even on the basis of these (fairly pessimistic,
and not that far fetched) assumptions, a great deal of common
ground about nuclear weapons. We'd like to have the probability of
death by nuclear explosion as small as possible, or nearly so.
rshowalter
- 07:28am May 15, 2001 EST (#3901
of 3901)
Robert Showalter
showalte@macc.wisc.edu
Signs in China and Taiwan of Making Money, Not War by
CRAIG S. SMITH http://www.nytimes.com/2001/05/15/world/15CHIN.html
"Despite the visions of war conjured by President
Bush's suggestion that the United States could help defend Taiwan
from a Chinese invasion, the social and economic integration
between the mainland and the island is stronger than ever, and
growing.
. . . . .
"Taipei and Shanghai have exchanged visits by
deputy mayors. And Taiwan's former prime minister, Vincent Siew,
is currently in China to lobby for a common market between the
mainland and Taiwan. He is the second vice chairman of Taiwan's
main opposition party, the Nationalist Party, to set foot in China
in less than six months.
"In cross-strait relations, we are in something of
a race between the forces of economic integration and political
separation," said Mr. Schell. "Barring some really nasty bump in
the road, I would bet on integration."
Considering the history, it is easy to see the Chinese bitterness
to Taiwan. Even so, some good accomodations are being made, among
some not so good. Maybe, this time, the forces of good sense and
peace will prevail.
There and elsewhere.
  
 
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