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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

almarst-2001 - 06:57pm May 8, 2001 EST (#3535 of 3547)

1. Based on past history, if there is a real tread of mass destruction to the US and the whole world, it most likely will come from some desperate and suicidal origin rather then calculated military action. I would put a probability of this scenario at 99% with 1% a chance for unintentional error. Unless the aggressor has an absolut superiority and assurance in no meaningful retaliation and loss.

2. The desperate and suicidal origin will most likely be some renegade or terrorist organization rather then a nation-state. For many reasons, including the existance of many international forums and information channels the nation can argue its position peacefully before coming to desperation. Even then, the desision-makers will be the last to suffer and succumb (see Iraq). I would put a probability of this scenario as 90%. Unless the nation will come to the brink of being "sunctioned to death" and completely isolated.

Therefore, as I see it, the chance of some nation to commit a wide-scale aggression using the WMD against the US population, at least today, is 1% X 10% = 0.1%. While the other scenario has a 99.9% probability.

Given that, the MD in combination with a space-based wearpons and 300bn mostly offensively postured and stationed around the Glob military machine (greater then 10 next military spenders) has only one purpose - US World domination.

I honestly will be very happy if someone can prove me wrong.

applez101 - 07:00pm May 8, 2001 EST (#3536 of 3547)

Alarmst -

"Even in a not so free world every one can hold its own oppinion;)

Have you being in all the places you mentioned?

By the way, what Kuala Lampur (in Moscow, I assume) is about?"

Indeed I have. I think you'd be quite impressed by KL (as in Malaysia) on all your scales of comparison (cultural richness, diversity are two that come to mind).

As for Moscow, I haven't been back there since the fall of the wall.

rshowalter - 07:05pm May 8, 2001 EST (#3537 of 3547)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

If I thought Bush's people did straight arithmetic, I'd think you'd be dead on. And since I think some of them sometimes do -- I think your point is a powerful one -- and I personally agree with it. Not that the US would really know what to do with "world domination."

But the American military has been so agressively threatening for so long that it seems to me that a lot of them have become very afraid of what they may, at some levels, consider "justice."

If you have to fight all the time, and win every fight without exception, or face destruction, then you have reason to be afraid -- and I think a great many Americans are afraid.

Peace would make more sense - but somehow they don't think peace is possible.

There's another part of it. . . . .

applez101 - 07:08pm May 8, 2001 EST (#3538 of 3547)

Here's a hypothesis worth discussing on this forum:

'What if' the US already has much of SDI already built? What if our dear President's flummoxing is an attempt to push through his 'honest government' agenda balanced against a messy inherited situation (an ABM broken a decade+ ago, space-based weaponry)? If the hypothesis is correct, it is unlikely that the SDI is complete or sophisticated, and the relatively minor 'Son of Star Wars' improvements we see debated today are interim measures to improve the C&C of this older system (until research bears more sophisticated fruit). Realistic technologies that could have been developed and deployed include: interception lasers (ground- and aircraft-based), 'brilliant pebble' orbital missiles.

Discuss. :)

rshowalter - 07:10pm May 8, 2001 EST (#3539 of 3547)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

That part is that people in the US are very confused, and afraid, and their head hurts, every time they are asked to think about either Russia, or nuclear weapons .... because there have been so many lies, and people have been told to be afraid in so many ways -- that people aren't thinking clearly.

. . . .

And there's another part. I don't think the possibility of fraud on a massive scale can be ruled out.