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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

possumdag - 10:23pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2539 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

FbUshN

possumdag - 10:36pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2540 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

The unamaned plane travelled at a height of 22km (65,000feet) and took 23hours20mins to travel from California to South australia, Over Australia it took the tourist route and sent ariel pictures continually .. there's quite a buzz regarding it's arrival to the extent of it acquiring an additional new name with Kangaroo! The un-staffed plane was greeted by 50 Top Brass Officials. The Americans were already on the ground, and the plane had been programmed for the trip since before Christmas ... presumably to give time for checking.

possumdag - 10:40pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2541 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

Russia: Media: Gusinsky gains his freedom but loses his empire

possumdag - 10:53pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2542 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

Thailand's Prime Minister has called for Asian economies to reject development based on the United States and Japanese economies.

possumdag - 10:59pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2543 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

Hostage:Turkey:Chechan gunmen

possumdag - 11:13pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2544 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

Gusinsky made the fatal error of not being independent at the 1996 election, one has to assume he 'lied' and told 'untruths' to boost votes for Yeltsin.

Western press also have a habit of 'coming down on the side of the winner' or 'making winners' .. the reason? Much of their income comes from advertising and governments place ads.

On Asian economies -- is there a different MODEL for Malysia and Thailand? OR do people have things to hide and seek to put up a front?

It is said that 'a bad workman blames his tools'

It is said that people 'pass the buck' blaming others rather than taking responsiblity for their own actions.

This may be the problem with the Russian Media -- quick to look for someone to blame, rather than empowering popular culture and individuals to let them see that one person CAN make a difference.

Were PUTIN to learn how to USE the MEDIA for the common good, to develop a 10year plan to lead people out of the abys and upwards towards a healthy normal economy, the people would be able to understand the journey and know where they fit in that activity.

10Yrs is 1000 weeks. Putin should prioratise and empower .. taking a slogan per week or month ... with activities attatched and over time, move the mindsets of the Russian people along.

It should work-in with international investors providing jobs and markets for product. It should work out what its assets are and capitalise upon them. An air of optimism should be conjured.

possumdag - 11:17pm Apr 23, 2001 EST (#2545 of 2547)
Possumdag@excite.com

On Chechan hostage takers:

If Russia has taken charge of this region, then Russia should be presenting futures so that the people have vision and direction.

That the hostage activity happened, suggests that these people must regard their situation as hopeless.

Putin has many opportunities to work WITH the MEDIA to open the eyes, hearts, minds of the people who want a better future for themselves and their children.

rshowalter - 06:42am Apr 24, 2001 EST (#2546 of 2547)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

possumdag 4/23/01 10:36pm it is a great thing, when technical work has to be done, especially when complexities are FAR beyond what anyone can model completely, to give time for checking so that the changes made, when they are made, can be successful.

For social reason, people (and this is, alas, true even of of mathematicians and engineers) tend to claim more confidence, more knowledge, more wisdom, than they really have -- to sell a project this may even be forced by the system -- as is the case in military contracting, where contracts are let on "beautiful" commercial art renderings of designs which are, in vital ways, not much more than cleaned up back-of-the-envelope design ideas. It isn't accepted that, for complex things, no one has either complete information nor complete understanding, and no computer programming can ever fix this.

And so, sometimes, best judgements, which really were the best that could have been done at the time, turn out to be wrong. People feel a need to lie (and the system may force them to lie). And if lies stack on top of another - in a "do loop" of accumulating lies -- the situation can be very bad.

It is a good thing that engineers, doing a job far, far, far simpler than missile defense -- one that was actually "easy in principle" (where missile defense is impossible in principle) still took time to check !

If only that could happen more. If only the need for such checking was assumed.

That assumption, if only people could make it, would humanize us all, and let us be more honest in all sorts of socio-technical jobs we have to do.

That assumption, acted on more consistently, would make us all safer and richer.

That assumption, applied with discipline to matters of military balances, and especially nuclear weapons, could save the world.

When complex systems, far beyond anybody's ability to model, have to be changed, it takes a lot of time, and care, and feedback, to work things out. It is good, when people have the time, that they take their time, and get jobs to actually work.

And sometimes, for reasons no one could possibly have predicted ideas that looked very good, just go wrong. There needs to be a way to recognize that fact, and not destroy people who happen to have been caught by such circumstances.

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