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Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 09:03pm Apr 20, 2001 EST (#2447 of 2449)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

China is angrily protesting Japan for letting a Taiwanese private citizen, formally president of Taiwan, visit Japan, under conditions of silence, for medical treatment.

Japan Risks Angering China on Visa for Ex-Taiwan Chief by CALVIN SIMS with ERIK ECKHOLM http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/20/world/20CND-JAPAN.html

China also objects to Lee Teng-hui visiting Ithaca NY, where he got a doctorate (in perhaps the quintessential peaceful subject - agricultural economics). Lee Teng-hui is 78 years old, and in such poor health that he could not find medical treatment in Taiwan, an advanced sociotechnical system in many ways.

Some rather elaborate fictions are being established and maintained here. Is China not aware of how much business (measured, perhaps, in many years of value in trade) that goes on between Taiwan, the US, and other countries?

How can she find her position proprtionate to the facts that all involved must deal with ?

China argues, and sometimes perhaps is entirely right to argue, that others should consider "the golden rule" in their dealings with her.

She should do the same.

And, if she wants workable relations, that stand up to the inevitable wear-and-tear that advanced complex cooperation takes, she needs to act with a sense of proportion, in ways that fit realities, and that other people can predict, and match to their sense of proportion.

If she tries to ostracise and isolate Taiwan with such ferocity (to only a little practical effect) how can she expect the Taiwanese to WANT to reunify with China?

rshowalter - 09:05pm Apr 20, 2001 EST (#2448 of 2449)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Even if China had 100 times the military power that she does, how much good would that do either her of the Taiwanese - if unification was attempted by force?

The things that are valuable in Taiwan,to either the Taiwanese or the Chinese, would be destroyed to no good purpose if unification by conquest were done --- even if it were possible.

And as a practical matter, conquest would be impossible anyway. The forces needed for conquest aren't there, and will never be there on a rational accounting.

(Conquest is so clearly impossible, that were I China I'd be indifferent about any military purchases by Taiwan - a nation that is not, because of disparities of size, ever going to invade China.

As in the case of trade relations versus military posture, China has some blazing internal contradictions. They are not beautiful, and do not serve either China's economic interest, or any sophisticated kind of self-respect China may have or aspire to.

Honest conduct cuts both ways. The golden rule cuts both ways.

rshowalter - 09:06pm Apr 20, 2001 EST (#2449 of 2449)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

China may have, does have, good reasons for hostility to Japan. That shouldn't matter in this particular case.

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