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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 08:01pm Apr 11, 2001 EST (#2169 of 2171)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Negotiations on the basis of agreed upon facts may or may not result in agreement. But unless a common body of facts can be agreed upon for solid reasons, closure may be impossible.

A major reason that facts are often illusive, or not powerful, is the limitations on the ability of human beings to handle complexity, and also the limitations on human memory.

With the technology of the internet, and socio-technical arrangements that are now possible - the old limits on the human ability to handle complexity, and to remember, are much less than before, and closure on issues that eluded closure before is now possible.

There's a major point of hope, it seems to me. Many of the best ideas are already laying around, at least in partial form, and discredited because they failed to persuade in the past. It may be that some of these arguments and not-persuasive-enough facts were not wrong, but "somehow, too weak."

They can be reinforced, matched to more reinforcing detail, and made stronger.

rshowalter - 08:14pm Apr 11, 2001 EST (#2170 of 2171)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Addition-correction:

"With evidence that ought to be organizable in very clear and compelling ways, it should be clear that the "Missile Defense" arguments the United States has been troubling the world with are either fraudulent or insane"

Should be modified to read:

"With evidence that ought to be organizable in very clear and compelling ways, it should be clear that the "Missile Defense" arguments the United States has been troubling the world with are either fraudulent or insane, or both. The arguments could be both fraudulent and insane, with some clearly fraudulent aspects, in some decisive places in the argument, and clearly insane aspects elsewhere in the argument, or with insanity and fraud mixed in other ways."

The longer statement isn't as pretty, but is perhaps more likely. My own guess is that Star Wars is conscious fraud, for money, at some key levels. And that very many dupes have been made to believe crazy things -- including some dupes who have risen high in the current administration.

rshowalter - 08:18pm Apr 11, 2001 EST (#2171 of 2171)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

In any such effort, of coures, the representatives of the United States should be invited -- forcefully invited -- publicly invited -- eloquently invited -- to show themselves honorable, sane people.

Perhaps they could make that case.

Just now, I don't see how, but I'd be prepared to be convinced.

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