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Missile Defense

Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's war and defense efforts. Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars" defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful? Can such an application of science be successful? Is a militarized space inevitable, necessary or impossible?

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manjumicha2001 - 12:38pm Feb 26, 2002 EST (#11837 of 11844)

Contrary to US governmen and media's assertions that NK possesses one or two nuclear bombs, the articles outside US that I read seem to put that number at as high as 25, at least half of which are deployed in ICBMs that will reach continental USA. And that such deployment was already complete before their attempt to put a small satellite in the space (i.e. they did not need extensive testing before deployment)?

Any knowledge you guys can share on the real NK strategic capabilities?

rshow55 - 12:51pm Feb 26, 2002 EST (#11838 of 11844)

What articles?

Distrust of your assertion may be "impolite" -- but impoliteness is sometimes justified.

Could this be an example of a big lie , well adapted to justify a program that could not stand on the facts?

It seems to me that it could be -- references, please? If the US government had more "cause for alarm" than it has made public -- it seems to me likely that it would have used it, in support of missile defense already.

Facts have to be checked.

References please?

If they are good ones, I'll hasten to apologize.

manjumicha2001 - 02:18pm Feb 26, 2002 EST (#11839 of 11844)

rshow

I do not blame you for your skepticism. I do agree that US defense estalishment needed NK boogyman to champion its decades-long dream of building missle defense after soviet threat, at least overtly, has gone away.

The dilema, however, has been how to balance such need with the importance of pursuading South Korea and Japan not to go nuclear themselves. They can certainly go "full monty" within 6 months of their decision to do so. The trick for US hawks is, therefore, to present the NK nuclear capability enough to give that extra push for the MD program but not to the extent that such presentation will sway both Japan and SK to go their own ways with respect to the nuclear issue. Thus, that puzzling reference to "at least one or two nuclear bombs" being repeated around DC media outlets, it seems.

As for the referecnes, the only one I found in English will be provided in the next posting. It came out in 1996 and includes only data not the analysis. Unfortunately the ones that I thought included more deeper analysis of NK nulear doctrine (which was eye-opening to me) are not in English.

manjumicha2001 - 02:26pm Feb 26, 2002 EST (#11840 of 11844)

N Korean Nuclear Arsenal By Lee Wha Rang, April 27, 1996 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The US-N Korea Geneva Nuclear Accord freezes N Korea's nuke "activities" in return for six billion-plus dollars in aids. N Korea's existing nuclear sites are not immediately affected. The accord does not address the "existing" nuclear devices. Its primary interest appears to be curtailing further expansion of nuke production in N Korea.

Nuke Sites

Yongbyon 0.1 megawatts thermal (MWt) critical assembly - This small reactor is believed to be the first nuclear reactor in N Korea. It was provided by the Soviet and went into operation in early 1960s. Its primary function is isotope production.

Yongbyon Reactor I - The construction of this natural uranium-graphite power reactor began in 1980 at Yongbyon, 100 km north of Pyongyang. It is based on a 1950 MAGNOX technology (graphite moderator, aluminum-magnesium clad natural uranium fuel , CO2 gas cooling). The reactor was completed in 1984 and it as was activated in February 1987 under Prof. Ha Kyong Won, a Korean physicist educated in US. After many startup problems, it was operating at 20-30 MW by 1990. N Korea removed about 30 lb. of plutonium from this reactor in 1988 and built two nuclear bombs. From 1989 to 1991, N Korea may have extracted additional 60 lb. of plutonium, enough for five nukes.

Yongbyon Reactor II - A 50 MW MAGNOX-type reactor was started in 1984. N Korea built a military nuclear complex next to this reactor. This complex was completed in 1989 and the reactor was tentatively activated in 1992. This reacto r alone is capable of producing enough plutonium for 10-12 nukes a year.

Taechon Reactor I - The construction of a 200 MW MAGNOX-type reactor was started at Taechon, 60 miles north of Pyongyang in 1988 and it is expected to be completed in 1996.

Taechon Reactor II - A 600-800 MW reactor is also underway at Taechon (completion possible by 1997). This reactor could produce 180-230 Kg of plutonium a year, enough for 30-40 nukes.

Simpo Reactor I - This 635mw reactor is based on a German design. In May 1989, N Korea and Germany signed a comprehensive agreement on the transfer of "substantial" amounts of German nuclear technology and nuclear weapons materials, includ ing enriched uranium, to Pyongyang. The transfer of the German nuclear know-how has continued via Iran, Libya Syria and Yugoslavia.

Yongbyon Separation Plant - A plutonium separation facility ("Radiological Research Lab") was built at Yongbyon in 1987. This plant is capable of handling several hundreds of tons of fuel a year, enough to handle fuel from all of the reactors , some 33 lb. of plutonium annually.. The plutonium factory for the nuclear weapons is a single story building constructed on top the main plutonium reprocessing facility, deep underground. In 1993, N Korea completed a second plant, doubling its cap acity for plutonium production.

About 70 lb. were believed to have been extracted from the reactors since 1991. In 1992, N Korea bought 120 lb. of plutonium from a former Soviet block country and may have produced 10 bombs. It is quite possible that N Korea has acquired additional nuclear material from the former Soviet republics.

Most intelligence sources, including Russian and Chinese, state that N Korea has close to 10 operational nuclear warheads for its missiles and two nuclear devices that can be carried by truck , boat or transport aircraft. N Korean warheads are of 50 KT class, weighing around 1,100 lb.

N Korean Missiles N Korea has deployed over 300 NoDong-x (medum range - Japan and Okinawa) and close to a thousand Scud-B/C missiles (short range - S Korea) all of which can carry nuclear or chemical warheads. NoDong-1's have a range of 1,300km and NoDong-2's have a range of 1,500-2,000km. N Korea is believed to have a limited number of TaepoDong-x ICBMs (long range - Ame

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