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Missile Defense

Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's war and defense efforts. Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars" defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful? Can such an application of science be successful? Is a militarized space inevitable, necessary or impossible?

rshowalter - 01:29pm Oct 3, 2001 EST (#10054 of 10060)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Comments on the new heading, 1:

"Technology has always found its greatest consumer in a nation's war and defense efforts. "

I'm not sure that is true --- to some extent it is a semantic question. The rate at which technology has changed people's lives may not have changed much, decade to decade, from the 1830's to the present. If it has, not as much as people preoccupied with the changes in their lives may think. The best data I've seen on a kind of technical change, patentable invention, is old, but not necessarily dated. It is the work of the late Jacob Schmookler, set out in two books:

.... Invention and Economic Growth Harvard U. Press, 1966, 76

and

... . Patents, Invention, and Economic Growth by Jacob Schmookler, edited by Zvi Griliches and Leonid Hurwicz Harvard U. Press, 1972

The overwhelming conclusion of Schmookler's, based on massive amounts of data, is that patents up to the 1960's back to the 1830s's -- (and I'd assume, now) are mostly done by rational economic actors, and are a result of demand .

It may be that technology's greatest single consumer historically has been war and defense -- because expenditure on these endeavors has been so large. But I believe that Schmookler's data is probably right, and the trends have probably been maintained -- - and that would mean that we get the economic creativity for which there is economic demand.

rshowalter - 01:35pm Oct 3, 2001 EST (#10055 of 10060)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Comments on the new heading, 2:

"Since the last attempts at a "Star Wars" defense system, has technology changed considerably enough to make the latest Missile Defense initiatives more successful?"

I've argued no, but not in the coherent way this welcome question invites. Breakthroughs happen where they happen, and do what they do. There are areas where we live in a radically more advanced world than Reagan's --- but others where progress has been much slower. I think the limits, in many ways, are much like they were -- especially so once the "lasar weapon" idea, which is unworkable, is set aside.

rshowalter - 01:45pm Oct 3, 2001 EST (#10056 of 10060)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Comments on the new heading 3:

"Is a militarized space inevitable, necessary or impossible?"

We need to agree on a definition of "a militarized space." . . if the idea is very close to the discussion of space weapons (other than reconnaisance satellites) in 'Battlefield: Space' by Jack Hitt http://www.nytimes.com/2001/08/05/magazine/05SPACEWARS.html I'd say "wildly unlikely or impossible" is fair comment. I think the inconveniences of space as a "weapons platform" are very high, compared to opportunities nearer the ground - - many worked out to very high lethality and flexibility today.

rshowalter - 01:56pm Oct 3, 2001 EST (#10057 of 10060)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Comments on the new heading 4:

"Can such an application of science be successful?"

A remarkably evocative, interesting question, with the words "such a" interpreted in many different ways.

Applications of human knowledge to accomplish human objectives are done all the time. Applications of human knowlege involving knowledge new enough to be called "science" -- rather than "mere engineering" are also sometimes done.

For these applications to be successful, a number of detailed criteria, technical and organizational, have to be met.

It seems to me that the "Star Wars" program fails on many counts - - some previously discussed on this board.

If you wanted a "paradigm case study" for what a boondoggle looks like -- I think the missile defense program might be a good candidate.

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