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Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans
for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be
limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI
all over again?
(1936 previous messages)
- 11:10am Apr 3, 2001 EST (#1937
My view on a US-Taiwan-China triangle:
1. In China's view, Taiwan, just like Hong-Kong and Makao, is a
direct result of colonial rule over China, the last reminder of this
era. But the last thing China will do is to destroy Taiwan - an
importand economic partner and home for so many divided Chinese
families. Also, China is very sensitive to its international image
and plans to play an ever increasing role internationally.
2. Taiwan plays a durty game exploiting the US desire to pick on
China and continue getting US support and privileges. They also very
much depend on trade and investment with China. The last thing
Taiwan wants is a suicidal war with China - the mainland of the same
nation and home of so many divided families.
The future will show for how long they will be able to ballance
on such a thin rope.
- 11:24am Apr 3, 2001 EST (#1938
The Taiwanese position, and the Chinese one as well, depend on
ideas, ideals, and assumptions of fact. It would be greatly
to the economic and cultural advantage of both sides to unite - if a
fair resolution could be worked out.
What prosperities and freedoms would the Taiwanese
have to give up?
What compromises, and concessions, and
forgivenesses, would China have to be forthcoming about?
I don't know enough to know. But I DO know that engagement could
happen -- both countries are free enough for that -- and especially
if common people, and business people, not just governent leaders,
They were separated, under bitter circumstances, but only a half
a century ago. That's yesterday, in Chinese terms. And both
sides here are Chinese, and proud to be Chinese.
China talks, and engages, international business people who
also are well connected to Taiwan.
Are the people involved sure of what they're fighting
I bet things could be made much more comfortable, and much safer,
for a lot less than the cost of an Aegis missile cruiser.
And now, if China chooses -- she has something of value -- she
can show that Taiwanese, clearly -- the things that US technology
cannot do -- the reasons Aegis is a bad deal for Taiwan.
Peace, on the other hand, would be a good deal for both sides.
A redemptive, entirely practical solution here ought to be
- 11:36am Apr 3, 2001 EST (#1939
Does China have her hands on the spy plane's manuals, and tech
support documentation? And can they search the web?
Can these people look at calibration procedures?
Can they find civilian equipment, made by the same manufacturers,
and in the same "family" of devices as the best operational
equipment the US flies? (Web searches of langauge in manuals can do
Can they look at components in the equipment, and get error
bands, and dates of manufacture -- so they know errors built into
the stuff, and what has to be calibrated, and what drifts, and how
OLD some of the basic componts are, in their basic form?
Given manuals, and web searches for strings of words, they can
find out "civilian brother" equipment to the equipment in the plane.
With specs, and promises, and known problems, and facts known to
people not bound by security agreements, in many countries.
All that is relavent to this thread -- missile defense --
because with this information it would be possible to show, beyond
any question, how FAR SHORT our technology is from what it would
need to be for missile defense --- and HOW AWARE the contractors
have to be of that fact.
I believe it could be done well enough to stick in a US or
international court. Or set out, subject to very complete
crossexamination, on the web.
Star Wars started as a big bluff, and so many lies have been told
that people are afraid to turn it off. But all the engineers have
known, very well, how big a farce it is -- and have taken money
under false pretenses, and lied to each other, and to the Congress.
And if a great deal of money hasn't been stolen -- that would be
surprising indeed -- and the program is so badly controlled that no
one in the system can track the money.
- 11:42am Apr 3, 2001 EST (#1940
I hope that, when the Chinese go (in a US diplomats phrase) "all
over" the spy plane, they use plenty of videotape, and take care to
record the things that can give them visual cues.
If I were them, I'd invite a lot of people, including reporters
for good news organizations, to see all the detail they could
So that the information on what the United States CANNOT
do can be clear, and vivid, to human beings who do, after all,
need to deal with redundant information to get convinced, and who
are VISUAL ANIMALS.
Pictures will help a lot.
How much more advanced is this "magic stuff" compared to what
you can get, commercially, for all sorts of computer and electronics
The answer is "not much."
If more people knew that answer, Missile Defense promises
could be entirely discredited, as they deserve to be, and the world
would have a much better chance of achieving real peace, and real
- 11:47am Apr 3, 2001 EST (#1941
Are the mathematical structures used in the control programs and
circuits any better than those described, and subject to the limits
set out, in ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR CONTROL SYSTEMS by
Dunstand Graham and Duane McRuer .....?
Dover Books -- original edition copyright 1961
Look at where the limits are --- in some decisive areas, they
haven't changed in 40 years.
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