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    Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

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rshowalter - 06:35pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1137 of 1145) Delete Message
Robert Showalter

My computer seems to be under fairly heavy attack --I may get slowed down a bit, but hope to keep on. ...

rshowalter - 07:20pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1138 of 1145) Delete Message
Robert Showalter

While I write other things, I'd like to repeat #1085 rshowalter 3/16/01 3:16pm #1086, #1073 rshowalter 3/16/01 12:56pm #1078 rshowalter 3/16/01 1:23pm #1079 and especially #1080 rshowalter 3/16/01 1:32pm

lunarchick - 07:47pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1139 of 1145)

Putin has some respect for the truth. In his BBC online interview, when asked why Mrs P didn't figure largely he said "If I told her to do something she'd just do the opposite" ... It's good that Russian Women have independence and a mind of their own!

On truth re Asia, with the concept of 'loss of faith', and failure to appologise to the wronged-Raped women of Korea. The nepotism, corruptin and failure to adhere to business principles has lead to the Economic Downturn in Asia. Bank loans were issued on relationship a basis not a business basis placing the Japanese economy in trouble for the past decade. Wasn't Japan by 1990 valued at the same value as the whole of North America. The day of accounting came.

The lack of 'truth' in the Eastern economies can not only lead to disaster as above, but also to the takeover of the economy by 'straight' business managers and operators. The doors are opening slowly to world practice and dare I say it 'American Management'. To give American style management it's due it has evolved through practise and scholarship last century (C20).

lunarchick - 07:52pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1140 of 1145)

Thinking more on the 'insurance' matter, it occurs to me that the concept of any National State being able, at will or on little pretence, to create havoc for others, should be less of a happening than it has been in the past.

Making States 'responsible' in relation to MD might be done by forcing an insurance policy over missile holders.

It might be done by looking at the range of the weapon(s). Within that circular range, the cost of a strike out of the highest priced target should be calculated + the 'wide area' of the damage that could be created + the effect of the pollutant in the cloud and carried by wind.

This would be the insurance price for each missile, cumulatively.

Totally 'unaffordable' one would hope.

Yet this needs to happen to put 'responsibility' into the minds of those with these lethal weapons.

lunarchick - 08:01pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1141 of 1145)

Doing something for a first time:

Note the storming of the Russian Plane in the Gulf.

The internet was used by the Russians to 'train' the local troups .. who then stormed the plane.

The locals should have had all the information, which would have included the fact that the onboard weapons were a pen-knife and a kitchen-knife.

On storming the plane, I'm going to assume that the troups were 'scared' and even though they knew there was no fire power within the plane, they forgot and wanted to first save themselves.

In doing this innocent people died.

Move this senario along to 'kids' working with MD buttons. A mature operator who had to make a decision whether or not to press a detonator button to lauch a nuclear winter killer rocket might think twice or three times, might rationalise, look for 'error' message. Whereas giving the button to the immature or 'warped' minded .. these might OBEY an order because they had been schooled in obeyance.

Scarry Stuff !!

rshowalter - 08:03pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1142 of 1145) Delete Message
Robert Showalter

There are some lawyers who might amuse themselves with that. Suing specific people, and specific organizations. Perhaps they could be organized, and act with a certain coordination. Might not be very expensive to do .....

Now, I've got a something else, too "academic" maybe, but I want to build on it.

rshowalter - 08:03pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1143 of 1145) Delete Message
Robert Showalter

There are a lot of nice ideas in Kline's Appendix C "Hypothesis, Guidelines, Data, and Queries

Here's one I think politicians, and others trying to figure out reality from words, need to know:

" Hypothesis V: The need for at least Three views:" At least three kinds of (correct) views are required for a reasonably good understanding of heirarchically structured systems (such as all sociotechnical systems) with interfaces of mutual constraint. These kinds of views are: synoptic, piecewise, and structural.

forget this, in complicated circumstances, and an incomplete specification can mislead you badly, whether the misspecification is intentional or unintentional.

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