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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

rshowalter - 06:02pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1131 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

In Chapter 4, p 63, Kline writes this:

" In very complex systems, such as sociotechnical systems, we have no theory of entire systems, and must therefore create, operate, and improve such systems via feedback: that is, repeated cycles of human observations plus trials of envisioned improvements in the real systems. In such very complex systems, data from a wide variety of cases therefore becomes the primary basis for understanding and judgements . . . "

So for complex systems, and especially sociotechnical systems, which are VERY complex, correct information matters, again and again, because it is used as feedback to run or modify the system. Unchecked assumptions can be expensive or disastrous. Lies can be disastrous. Because if the reliability of the information used in the feedback is limited, the function of the system is also limited -- and the system is likely to fail badly if it has to be changed.

The truth is known, in such a circumstance, to be much more safe, and much more advantageous, than lies or wrong ideas. And so checking for correctness is very practical, and lies, even very well intentioned or understandable ones, can be very damaging.

rshowalter - 06:10pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1132 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Steve means something pretty simple when he speaks of his Index of complexity -- it is, for all the systems we looked at (and I put hundreds of hours into this part of Steve's work) C, the complexity number is constrained as follows:

V + P + L < C < V times P times L

where

V is the number of independent variables

P is the number of independent parameters needed to distinguish the system from other systems of the same class

and

L is the number of feedback loops both within the system and connecting the system to its surroundings.

The most complicated problems engineers can now solve explicitly have C < 5 (I'm expecting to extend that a bit. )

Human social systems, even simple ones, have C values in the billions. in such very complex systems, we must create, operate, and improve via feedback: that is, repeated cycles of human observations plus trials of envisioned improvements in the real systems."

And so the truth is crucial for function.

rshowalter - 06:13pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1133 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Here is the essence of the most effective psychological warfare - - you mess up a system, and can even shut it down, by telling lies.

Russia has been the victim of some very sophisticated and effective psychological warfare from outside, and has, to a significant degree, been weakened by lies its own people and goverment have told.

Similar things, to a lesser degree, can be said of America.

We need, for practical reasons, to increase the probability of right answers in our information systems -- we need to replace lies with truths.

On issues involving military balances, we need to very much increase it.

Especially because peace requires it.

Russia has a right, and an obligation, to get a clear understanding, that it can see and that other nations can see, of the threats to which it has been subjected, and the deceptions.

For practical reasons, and for moral reasons. Peace and prosperity both require it.

rshowalter - 06:17pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1134 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

As a practical matter, one checks facts and ideas by a matching process --- matching the logic step by step against trusted standards, and --- usually much more important, matching to see if what is said matches what is there when you check.

rshowalter - 06:19pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1135 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Refusal to check, and refusal to permit checking, can be very dangerous, and damaging.

Especially where nuclear weapons are involved. And where nuclear weapons are involved, the most essential things are hidden, and have been hidden, and concealed, and lied about, actively and agressively for half a century of terror.

rshowalter - 06:24pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1136 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

In HUMAN terms, getting at the truth may, very often, require redemptive solutions -- because without them, the human resistance to finding the truth may be absolutely insurmountable. And the costs of "justice" -- even if you could decently define it - and sometime you can't - can be prohibitive.

But the TRUTH is essential, for moral and psychological reasons, and for practical reasons that become more compelling, at something like a factorial rate of growth, as systems become more complicated.

rshowalter - 06:35pm Mar 17, 2001 EST (#1137 of 1137)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

My computer seems to be under fairly heavy attack --I may get slowed down a bit, but hope to keep on. ...

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