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Missile Defense

Russian military leaders have expressed concern about US plans for a national missile defense system. Will defense technology be limited by possibilities for a strategic imbalance? Is this just SDI all over again?

mhunter20 - 01:27pm Feb 21, 2001 EST (#733 of 736)

dirac_10 2/21/01 12:26pm

Good point.

rshowalter - 01:49pm Feb 21, 2001 EST (#734 of 736)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

This is the best of that good point:

"Because we have both performed the miracle of not screwing up all these years, does not mean we won't in the future. No axiomatic system is complete. There's always a way to screw it up." dirac_10 2/21/01 12:26pm

A reason to be careful, and to check assumptions and details.

It the current setup capable of doing that? Could it be that it is much worse controlled, and less stable, than people have thought?

How would you check? In the real systems that are there, in the human organizations in which these systems occur.

I have run a long running demonstration on how difficult it is to get checking, and the results, in the nuclear weapon field, are terrifying.

rshowalter - 01:54pm Feb 21, 2001 EST (#735 of 736)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

Maybe with the Russians and NATO talking with the US about missile defense and all the related issues of nuclear posture, some facts can be established.

Getting just a few facts straight might convert a terribly dangerous, ugly situation, into one where beautiful and much safer solutions are possible for all concerned.

rshowalter - 02:00pm Feb 21, 2001 EST (#736 of 736)
Robert Showalter showalte@macc.wisc.edu

The most basic fact is this.

Distrust and nuclear weapons go together. That's an inescapable fact. Fear levels, and human nature dictate that "in general." The historical facts reinforce the general tendency with irresistable force.

If we stopped trying to "build trust" and made reasonable accomodations based on the distrust and fear that actually exists much more beautiful solutions, for all involved, might become practical.

Even, in relative terms, easy.

And we might be able to ENFORCE a safe nuclear world, as well.

If the US has to be afraid of Iraq, or N. Korea, could we be doing something wrong? I think so.

We are trying to build our solutions on the basis of incorrect facts , and it doesn't work. The facts of our situation are all pretty understandable in retrospect, nobody is "to blame" so much as there is an unfortunate situation, that could easily destroy the world, that ought to be fixed. And could be.

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